Real vs. Reported

Only metrics measuring the same variable in the same units are paired side-by-side. Everything else is shown as a pure actual or context indicator. No misleading apples-to-oranges comparisons.

The real world is nuanced but — the actual data looks better than the survey data. 28 of the 40 variables show a positive signal in the real-world data.

Validated Comparisons

Reported (Survey / Model / Lagged)

Real (Actual Transactions / Filings / Real-Time)

Labour Market →Aligned

Monthly Employment Change — Monthly net employment change

FRED · monthly

NFP

178K+111K vs year ago

FRED · monthly

ADP

62K+115K vs year ago

Inflation →Aligned

Shelter Inflation YoY — Year-over-year shelter/rent inflation

FRED · monthly

CPI Shelter

3.0%-1.0pp vs year ago

ZILLOW-ZORI · monthly

Zillow ZORI

1.8%-1.3pp vs year ago

Housing →Aligned

Home Price YoY Change — Year-over-year home price change

FRED · monthly

Case-Shiller

0.7%-3.3pp vs year ago

ZILLOW-ZHVI · monthly

Zillow ZHVI

0.4%-1.7pp vs year ago

Activity Indicators

These dimensions have no validated apples-to-apples pair. Each metric is shown individually with its own signal assessment — no “better/worse than reported” banners.

Credit & Lending

3 metrics · No valid pair

H.8 Lending:7.1%+3.4pp vs year agoPositive signal

Consumer Spending

2 metrics · No valid pair

Retail Sales:4.0%-1.2pp vs year agoPositive signal

AI & Tech Employment

2 metrics · No valid pair

Indeed SW Jobs:73.1+14.7% YoYPositive signal

Manufacturing

4 metrics · No valid pair

IP Index:0.7%+0.1pp vs year agoPositive signal

High-Frequency Activity

4 metrics · No valid pair

TSA:—

Government Debt & Fiscal

6 metrics · No valid pair

Outlays:$7681B+5.0% YoYWarning sign

Methodology

Reported (Left column) = official surveys, models, and lagged indices. Subject to revision and sampling error. Sources: BLS (CES/CPS surveys), Conference Board, University of Michigan, S&P CoreLogic.

Real (Right column) = actual counted transactions, filings, and real-time measurements. No estimation. Sources: ADP payroll data, Zillow listings, TSA checkpoint counts, AAR carloads, FRED transactional series.

Pairing rule: Only metrics measuring the same variable in the same units are paired side-by-side. Metrics without a true survey counterpart are shown in the “Pure Actuals” section without comparison banners.

YoY calculation: All year-over-year changes compare the latest available value to the value closest to 12 months prior, using identical methodology on both sides.

Last refreshed: 3 May 2026, 07:57 UTC — auto-refreshes daily at 06:00 UTC