Housing

Home prices, construction activity, and mortgage rates. One validated pair: Case-Shiller vs Zillow ZHVI (home price YoY change).

Reported vs Real

Reported (Survey / Model / Lagged)
Real (Actual Transactions / Filings / Real-Time)
Home Price YoY Change
Shared variable: Year-over-year home price change · Unit: percent (yoy_pct)
Aligned: Reported and actual data are directionally aligned
FRED · monthlySurvey
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Source →
0.9%-3.3pp vs year agoPositive signal

Case-Shiller: released with 2-month lag, 3-month rolling average. Only covers 20 major metro areas using repeat-sale methodology.

Latest data: Jan 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
ZILLOW · monthlyActual
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)
Source →
0.2%-2.4pp vs year agoPositive signal

Zillow ZHVI covers 100M+ homes using Zestimate model. Updated monthly with minimal lag, covers all property types nationwide.

Latest data: Feb 28, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
How they differ: Both measure year-over-year home price appreciation. Case-Shiller is lagged and metro-limited; ZHVI is near real-time and nationwide.

Pure Actuals — No Survey Counterpart

These metrics have no directly comparable survey-based counterpart measuring the same variable in the same units. Shown individually with signal assessment only.

ZILLOW · monthlyActual
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI)
Source →
1.9%-1.1pp vs year agoPositive signal

Zillow tracks actual asking rents across millions of active rental listings nationwide. Shows what landlords are actually charging — a real-time read on rental market conditions that affect housing affordability.

Latest data: Feb 28, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
FRED · quarterlyActual
FHFA House Price Index
Source →
3.4%-2.1pp vs year agoPositive signal

FHFA tracks actual purchase prices from conforming mortgages. Broadest transaction-based house price index, covering all 50 states.

Latest data: Oct 1, 2025Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
FRED · monthlyActual
Housing Starts
Source →
1487K+9.5% YoYPositive signal

Census Bureau count of new residential construction projects begun.

Latest data: Jan 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
FRED · monthlyActual
Building Permits
Source →
1386K-5.1% YoYWarning sign

Actual permit applications filed with local authorities. Leading indicator of future housing supply.

Latest data: Jan 1, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
FRED · weeklyActual
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
Source →
6.5%-0.2pp YoYPositive signal

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey — the benchmark 30-year fixed rate based on actual lender offerings.

Latest data: Apr 2, 2026Fetched: Apr 8, 2026
Methodology
Reported (Left column) = official surveys, models, and lagged indices. Subject to revision and sampling error. Sources: BLS (CES/CPS surveys), Conference Board, University of Michigan, S&P CoreLogic.
Real (Right column) = actual counted transactions, filings, and real-time measurements. No estimation. Sources: ADP payroll data, Zillow listings, TSA checkpoint counts, AAR carloads, FRED transactional series.
Pairing rule: Only metrics measuring the same variable in the same units are paired side-by-side. Metrics without a true survey counterpart are shown in the “Pure Actuals” section without comparison banners.
YoY calculation: All year-over-year changes compare the latest available value to the value closest to 12 months prior, using identical methodology on both sides.
Last refreshed: 8 Apr 2026, 17:19 UTC — auto-refreshes daily at 06:00 UTC