Prediction Scorecard

“The economy is going to avoid a recession. I'd put the probability of a downturn in the next 12 months at about 1 in 3, and falling.”

“The job market is throttling back, but it's not falling apart. We're going from a red-hot labor market to one that's just warm — and that's exactly what we need.”

“Inflation is going to continue to move in the right direction. By early 2025, we should be very close to the Fed's 2% target.”

“House prices are not going to decline nationally. The housing market is frozen, not broken. Once mortgage rates come down, activity will pick back up.”

“The thing that keeps me up at night is the fiscal situation. The federal deficit is running way too hot for an economy at full employment. This is going to be a problem.”

“If all tariffs go into effect and stay in effect, the typical American household will have to shell out $1,200 to $1,300 more a year to buy the same goods.”

“As soon as you see negative employment — payroll employment decline in a month — that's when alarm bells should start going off.”

“Inflation won't fall as much, growth won't be as much, and interest rates won't be cut as much as is reflected in the prices. Inflation will probably be about a percent higher than expected.”

“We have a very severe supply-demand problem. The US has to sell a quantity of debt that the world is not going to want to buy. You are going to see shocking developments in how that's dealt with.”

“Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession. I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well. Such times are very much like the 1930s.”

“Gold is the safest money. The devaluations will show up in higher gold prices rather than one currency falling relative to others. Allocate 10-15% to gold.”

“Obviously the AI boom is now in the early stages of a bubble. We're at about 80% of the conditions preceding the 1929 crash or the 2000 dot-com bubble.”

“I'm seeing the US headed toward having the equivalent of an economic heart attack. Debt service payments are like plaque in the arteries squeezing away buying power.”

“The most likely scenario is no landing — the economy continues to expand, and the Fed doesn't need to cut rates as much as the market expects.”

“The Fed will cut rates fewer times than the market's consensus of 6-7 cuts. Persistent economic strength and sticky services inflation will limit cuts to 2-3 at most in 2024.”

“The 'last mile' of disinflation will be the hardest. Core PCE will remain sticky above 2.5% through most of 2024, making it difficult for the Fed to declare victory.”

“Corporate credit spreads will remain tight. Fears of a corporate debt crisis are overblown — strong earnings and manageable refinancing will keep defaults low.”

“Trump tariff policies pose the biggest risk to the no-landing thesis. Tariffs could create a supply shock that simultaneously raises inflation and slows growth.”

“There is a 90% chance of what can be called a Voluntary Trade Reset Recession. Current tariffs could shave almost 4 percentage points off GDP in 2025.”

“The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and firms using Chinese products.”

“There is a meaningful probability, maybe 15%, that the next move in rates is up rather than down. If inflation proves stickier than expected, the Fed may need to raise.”

“The neutral rate of interest has risen structurally. The era of near-zero rates is over. The neutral Fed Funds rate is likely 4% or higher, not the 2.5% the Fed's dot plot indicates.”

“I would not have started with 50. There is a real risk that this is seen as the Fed flinching in its inflation fight.”

“Trump's combination of tariffs, tax cuts, and deportations would be the most inflationary policy mix in modern American history. This is stagflationary.”

“US fiscal deficits at 6-7% of GDP during full employment are unprecedented and reckless. The 10-year Treasury yield will remain above 4% for an extended period — a structural shift.”

“I think we may be at the foothills of stagflation. The economic impacts of the tariffs are yet to be fully felt.”

“Long-term Treasuries are trading more like those of an emerging market nation than those of a nation with the world's reserve currency.”

“I think the Fed should cut by 75 basis points at the September meeting. The Fed funds rate is way too high relative to where inflation is heading.”

“We could easily see the Dow above 40,000 this year. Stocks have a lot more room to run given where earnings are headed.”

“Inflation is going to come down faster than people think. The shelter component is overstated, and once that adjusts, we'll be at or near 2%.”

“The Fed is making a mistake by keeping rates this high for this long. They're risking causing unnecessary damage to the labor market.”

“Once the Fed starts cutting, you're going to see a massive rotation into small caps and value stocks. That's where the opportunity is.”

“I could see the Mag Seven cooling in 2025, to maybe being flat on the whole. We have these two markets — the Mag Seven selling for 30-35x and the other 493 at 19x.”

“There's no way I see double-digit earnings growth in 2025.”

“The S&P 500 will reach 5,200 by end of 2024. We're in a new bull market driven by earnings growth and eventual rate cuts.”

“I think inflation is going to cool pretty dramatically. I don't know when, but it'll be sometime in the second half of this year.”

“With the Fed doing a dovish pause, and CEOs getting more confident, I do think the Russell can rise 50% this year.”

“S&P 500 will rally to 7,000 by mid-2025, then retreat to 6,600 year-end. A tale of two years.”

“$200,000 to $250,000 for Bitcoin still makes sense for 2025.”

“We're three years at 20% gains. The S&P probably closes 7,000 or so this year and projects 7,700 for 2026.”

“Pivoted from $1.6B in bearish S&P/Nasdaq puts to concentrated Chinese tech stocks (Alibaba, JD.com, Baidu) — a bet on China recovery.”

“Added significant gold position (Sprott Physical Gold Trust) — signaling a bet on inflation persistence or monetary debasement.”

“The US consumer is tapped out. Consumer credit deterioration will lead to economic weakness — parallels to 2007.”

“Took short-oriented / put positions on semiconductor stocks — a bet against AI/chip euphoria.”

“AI equity concentration is a speculative bubble. This is the Nifty Fifty / dot-com all over again. There will be a rug pull.”

“$912M in Palantir puts (66% of portfolio) + $187M in NVIDIA puts. A $1.1 billion bet that the AI trade is overextended.”

“We are heading for a period of stagflation unlike anything since the 1970s. The convergence of geopolitical instability, climate shocks, and sovereign debt stress creates a polycrisis.”

“The US fiscal deficit trajectory is unsustainable. A 'Minsky moment' in the Treasury market is increasingly likely — bond vigilantes will force yields sharply higher.”

“Bitcoin's rally to new highs is the mother of all bubbles. Crypto has no fundamental value and regulatory crackdowns will eventually deflate the space.”

“The combination of US-China tensions, Middle East instability, and Russia-Ukraine escalation will produce a major oil price shock in 2024, potentially pushing Brent above $120.”

“The US labor market is much weaker than headline numbers suggest. The large BLS revision of -818K jobs shows a recession is more likely than consensus believes.”

“The second half will amount to a mini stagflationary shock. I expect core PCE to reach about 3.5% by the end of the year.”

“America's economic tailwinds will override Trump and his tariffs. No full recession in 2025.”

“We are prepared for interest rates from 2% to 8% or even more, with equally wide-ranging outcomes — from strong growth to a recession with inflation, i.e. stagflation.”

“The odds of a soft landing are only 35-40%. I wouldn't count my eggs on that outcome.”

“I think probably a recession is a likely outcome. No one's wishing for that but hopefully, if there is one, it'll be short.”

“It's all inflationary — government deficits, high asset prices, excess pandemic cash, increased military spending, and tariff wars.”

“AI is not a speculative bubble; it will deliver significant benefits. But we cannot predict the ultimate winners and losers. Your kids will probably work 3.5 days a week and live to 100.”

“Asset prices do not fully reflect the potential for a recession or stagflationary outcome.”

“In 2024 expect to see a boom in housing sales volume.”

“Alphabet will be the best-performing Big Tech stock in 2024. It's been over-punished for its flaccid response to AI, as Meta was for the Metaverse.”

“The AI bubble won't burst but will deflate. More than a quarter of US venture funding goes to AI startups and 4 in 5 American unicorns are AI-related.”

“Nuclear energy represents the best trade. All roads lead to nuclear — a ChatGPT query demands 10x the energy of a Google query.”

“US stocks are overdue for a correction. The US makes up 50% of global market cap. When stocks get this expensive, capital looks for greater returns elsewhere.”

“The US faces either chaos in the labor markets or a severe market correction that could see the Magnificent 7 cut in half.”

“I believe we are heading into a deflationary environment. AI, robotics, and energy storage are going to drive costs down dramatically. The Fed is making a serious mistake by looking in the rearview mirror.”

“Our base case for Bitcoin is $600,000 by 2030, and our bull case is $1.5 million. The spot ETF approvals are a game-changer.”

“Our 2029 price target for Tesla is $2,000 per share. The autonomous ride-hail network is going to be a multi-trillion dollar opportunity.”

“Innovation stocks are in deep value territory. When interest rates come down, these will be the biggest beneficiaries. We expect a significant recovery.”

“AI is going to transform every sector. GDP growth could be 2-3x higher than consensus expects over the next five years because of productivity gains.”

“We're at the last leg of a rolling recession. I think we're going to see a deflationary boom in the second half of this year — productivity-driven growth with much lower inflation.”

“Real GDP growth will surge toward 5% in 2026, accompanied by falling inflation — potentially outright deflation — driven by an AI-led productivity boom.”