Signal Scoreboard

Every variable we track, split by whether its current reading is a positive or warning signal for the economy. This is the breakdown behind the headline on the dashboard.

The real world is nuanced but — the actual data looks better than the survey data. 28 of the 40 variables show a positive signal in the real-world data.

Positive Signals(28)

Variables currently reading as healthy or improving.

FRED·weekly·real

Commercial Bank Loans (H.8)

Credit & Lending

7.0%

+2.7pp vs year ago

growing 7.0% YoY (was 4.3%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

Consumer Credit Outstanding

Credit & Lending

2.1%

+1.6pp vs year ago

growing 2.1% YoY (was 0.5%, accelerating)

FRED·quarterly·real

Credit Card Delinquency Rate

Credit & Lending

2.9%

-0.1pp YoY

at 2.9% (down 0.1pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·reported

SLOOS Lending Standards

Credit & Lending

0.0%

-9.5pp YoY

at 0.0% (down 9.5pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·reported

Federal Government Receipts

Government Debt & Fiscal

$5872B

+8.9% YoY

at $5872B (up +8.9% YoY)

FRED·monthly·real

Electric Power Production

High-Frequency Activity

1.2%

+1.5pp vs year ago

growing 1.2% YoY (was -0.3%, a reversal from contraction)

OPENTABLE·daily·real

OpenTable Seated Diners

High-Frequency Activity

13.3%

-1.5pp vs year ago

growing 13.3% YoY (was 14.8%, decelerating)

FRED·weekly·real

Rail Freight Carloads

High-Frequency Activity

1006056.0

+2.7% YoY

at 1006056.0 (up +2.7% YoY)

FRED·weekly·real

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

Housing

6.7%

-0.1pp YoY

at 6.7% (down 0.1pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

FHFA House Price Index

Housing

3.4%

-1.4pp vs year ago

growing 3.4% YoY (was 4.8%, decelerating)

at 1427K (up +3.5% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Housing

1.1%

-1.2pp vs year ago

growing 1.1% YoY (was 2.3%, decelerating)

ZILLOW-ZHVI·monthly·real

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)

Housing

0.8%

+0.3pp vs year ago

growing 0.8% YoY (was 0.5%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

CPI Rent of Primary Residence

Inflation

2.8%

-1.0pp vs year ago

growing 2.8% YoY (was 3.8%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

growing 3.3% YoY (was 3.8%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

CPI Used Cars & Trucks

Inflation

-1.8%

-4.5pp vs year ago

contracting -1.8% YoY (was 2.7%, a deterioration from growth)

FRED·monthly·real

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealer Sales

Inflation

1.50M

-0.7pp vs year ago

growing 1.50M YoY (was 2.20M, decelerating)

ZILLOW-ZORI·monthly·real

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI)

Inflation

2.2%

-0.3pp vs year ago

growing 2.2% YoY (was 2.5%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

ADP Employment Change

Labour Market

98K

+99K vs year ago

adding 98K (was -1K a year ago)

FRED·weekly·real

Continued Claims as % of Workforce

Continued Unemployment Claims

Labour Market

1782K

-8.0% YoY

at 1782K (down 8.0% YoY)

FRED·weekly·real

Initial Unemployment Claims

Labour Market

197K

-10.0% YoY

at 197K (down 10.0% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

Non-Farm Payrolls (BLS)

Labour Market

57K

+77K vs year ago

adding 57K (was -20K a year ago)

FRED·monthly·reported

BLS Manufacturing Employment

Manufacturing

+18K vs year ago

adding 3K (was -15K a year ago)

FRED·monthly·real

Industrial Production Index

Manufacturing

1.1%

+0.5pp vs year ago

growing 1.1% YoY (was 0.6%, accelerating)

growing 6.7% YoY (was 4.0%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

Food Services & Drinking Places

Consumer Spending

3.8%

-3.0pp vs year ago

growing 3.8% YoY (was 6.8%, decelerating)

FRED·daily·real

Indeed Software Developer Job Postings

AI & Tech Employment

75.5

+14.0% YoY

at 75.5 (up +14.0% YoY)

Warning Signs(12)

Variables currently reading as unhealthy or deteriorating.

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Debt as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

122.6%

+2.0pp YoY

at 122.6% (up +2.0pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Deficit as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

-5.8%

+0.4pp YoY

at -5.8% (up +0.4pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Government Expenditures

Government Debt & Fiscal

$7764B

+3.6% YoY

at $7764B (up +3.6% YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Interest Payments

Government Debt & Fiscal

$1247B

+7.4% YoY

at $1247B (up +7.4% YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Net Interest as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

3.2%

+0.1pp YoY

at 3.2% (up +0.1pp YoY)

at 1374K (down 1.8% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

growing 3.5% YoY (was 2.7%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

Unemployment Rate (BLS)

Labour Market

4.2%

+0.1pp YoY

at 4.2% (up +0.1pp YoY)

FRED·monthly·real

Capacity Utilization Rate

Manufacturing

76.1%

-0.1pp YoY

at 76.1% (down 0.1pp YoY)

contracting -4.1% YoY (was -2.4%, easing)

FRED·monthly·reported

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Spending

49.5

-18.5% YoY

at 49.5 (down 18.5% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

BLS Tech Sector Employment

AI & Tech Employment

-9K

-8K vs year ago

losing 9K (was -1K a year ago)

How we score signals

Each variable is classified good or bad by the same rule used everywhere on the site. For rate series (already a % change, e.g. CPI YoY), we check both the level and the direction: an inflation-type metric is good if it’s already at or below 2% or if it’s decelerating; a growth-type metric is good if it’s positive or accelerating. For diff series (e.g. payrolls added/lost), positive = good when {upIsGood} is true. For level series, we use the YoY direction. Variables without enough history to compute a year-ago comparison are excluded from the count.

Methodology

Reported (Left column) = official surveys, models, and lagged indices. Subject to revision and sampling error. Sources: BLS (CES/CPS surveys), Conference Board, University of Michigan, S&P CoreLogic.

Real (Right column) = actual counted transactions, filings, and real-time measurements. No estimation. Sources: ADP payroll data, Zillow listings, TSA checkpoint counts, AAR carloads, FRED transactional series.

Pairing rule: Only metrics measuring the same variable in the same units are paired side-by-side. Metrics without a true survey counterpart are shown in the “Pure Actuals” section without comparison banners.

YoY calculation: All year-over-year changes compare the latest available value to the value closest to 12 months prior, using identical methodology on both sides.

Last refreshed: 4 Aug 2026, 08:29 UTC — auto-refreshes daily at 06:00 UTC