Signal Scoreboard

Every variable we track, split by whether its current reading is a positive or warning signal for the economy. This is the breakdown behind the headline on the dashboard.

The real world is nuanced but — the actual data looks better than the survey data. 29 of the 40 variables show a positive signal in the real-world data.

Positive Signals(29)

Variables currently reading as healthy or improving.

FRED·weekly·real

Commercial Bank Loans (H.8)

Credit & Lending

7.5%

+2.7pp vs year ago

growing 7.5% YoY (was 4.8%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

Consumer Credit Outstanding

Credit & Lending

2.6%

+2.4pp vs year ago

growing 2.6% YoY (was 0.2%, accelerating)

FRED·quarterly·real

Credit Card Delinquency Rate

Credit & Lending

2.9%

-0.2pp YoY

at 2.9% (down 0.2pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·reported

SLOOS Lending Standards

Credit & Lending

0.0%

-9.5pp YoY

at 0.0% (down 9.5pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·reported

Federal Government Receipts

Government Debt & Fiscal

$5981B

+6.7% YoY

at $5981B (up +6.7% YoY)

FRED·monthly·real

Electric Power Production

High-Frequency Activity

6.9%

+8.0pp vs year ago

growing 6.9% YoY (was -1.1%, a reversal from contraction)

OPENTABLE·daily·real

OpenTable Seated Diners

High-Frequency Activity

15.0%

+5.9pp vs year ago

growing 15.0% YoY (was 9.1%, accelerating)

FRED·weekly·real

Rail Freight Carloads

High-Frequency Activity

991352.0

+2.0% YoY

at 991352.0 (up +2.0% YoY)

at 1394K (up +3.5% YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

FHFA House Price Index

Housing

3.0%

-0.8pp vs year ago

growing 3.0% YoY (was 3.8%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Housing

1.5%

-0.4pp vs year ago

growing 1.5% YoY (was 1.9%, decelerating)

ZILLOW-ZHVI·monthly·real

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)

Housing

1.2%

+1.0pp vs year ago

growing 1.2% YoY (was 0.2%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

CPI Rent of Primary Residence

Inflation

2.8%

-0.7pp vs year ago

growing 2.8% YoY (was 3.5%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

growing 3.0% YoY (was 3.6%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

CPI Used Cars & Trucks

Inflation

-2.3%

-8.3pp vs year ago

contracting -2.3% YoY (was 6.0%, a deterioration from growth)

FRED·monthly·real

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealer Sales

Inflation

1.00M

-5.0pp vs year ago

growing 1.00M YoY (was 6.00M, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

ADP Employment Change

Labour Market

38K

-11K vs year ago

adding 38K (was 49K a year ago)

FRED·weekly·real

Continued Claims as % of Workforce

Continued Unemployment Claims

Labour Market

1730K

-10.1% YoY

at 1730K (down 10.1% YoY)

FRED·weekly·real

Initial Unemployment Claims

Labour Market

196K

-15.9% YoY

at 196K (down 15.9% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

Non-Farm Payrolls (BLS)

Labour Market

162K

+232K vs year ago

adding 162K (was -70K a year ago)

FRED·monthly·reported

Unemployment Rate (BLS)

Labour Market

4.1%

-0.2pp YoY

at 4.1% (down 0.2pp YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

BLS Manufacturing Employment

Manufacturing

16K

+26K vs year ago

adding 16K (was -10K a year ago)

FRED·monthly·real

Capacity Utilization Rate

Manufacturing

76.3%

+0.2pp YoY

at 76.3% (up +0.2pp YoY)

growing 2.1% YoY (was -9.3%, a reversal from contraction)

FRED·monthly·real

Industrial Production Index

Manufacturing

1.4%

+0.2pp vs year ago

growing 1.4% YoY (was 1.2%, accelerating)

growing 6.0% YoY (was 4.7%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

Food Services & Drinking Places

Consumer Spending

5.8%

-0.4pp vs year ago

growing 5.8% YoY (was 6.2%, decelerating)

FRED·daily·real

Indeed Software Developer Job Postings

AI & Tech Employment

76.6

+17.1% YoY

at 76.6 (up +17.1% YoY)

Warning Signs(11)

Variables currently reading as unhealthy or deteriorating.

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Debt as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

122.6%

+2.0pp YoY

at 122.6% (up +2.0pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Deficit as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

-5.8%

+0.4pp YoY

at -5.8% (up +0.4pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Government Expenditures

Government Debt & Fiscal

$7765B

+3.6% YoY

at $7765B (up +3.6% YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Interest Payments

Government Debt & Fiscal

$1247B

+7.4% YoY

at $1247B (up +7.4% YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Net Interest as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

3.2%

+0.1pp YoY

at 3.2% (up +0.1pp YoY)

FRED·weekly·real

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

Housing

7.0%

+0.7pp YoY

at 7.0% (up +0.7pp YoY)

at 1275K (down 1.2% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

growing 3.4% YoY (was 2.9%, accelerating)

ZILLOW-ZORI·monthly·real

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI)

Inflation

2.5%

+0.5pp vs year ago

growing 2.5% YoY (was 2.0%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Spending

55.2

-10.5% YoY

at 55.2 (down 10.5% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

BLS Tech Sector Employment

AI & Tech Employment

-23K

-22K vs year ago

losing 23K (was -1K a year ago)

How we score signals

Each variable is classified good or bad by the same rule used everywhere on the site. For rate series (already a % change, e.g. CPI YoY), we check both the level and the direction: an inflation-type metric is good if it’s already at or below 2% or if it’s decelerating; a growth-type metric is good if it’s positive or accelerating. For diff series (e.g. payrolls added/lost), positive = good when {upIsGood} is true. For level series, we use the YoY direction. Variables without enough history to compute a year-ago comparison are excluded from the count.

Methodology

Reported (Left column) = official surveys, models, and lagged indices. Subject to revision and sampling error. Sources: BLS (CES/CPS surveys), Conference Board, University of Michigan, S&P CoreLogic.

Real (Right column) = actual counted transactions, filings, and real-time measurements. No estimation. Sources: ADP payroll data, Zillow listings, TSA checkpoint counts, AAR carloads, FRED transactional series.

Pairing rule: Only metrics measuring the same variable in the same units are paired side-by-side. Metrics without a true survey counterpart are shown in the “Pure Actuals” section without comparison banners.

YoY calculation: All year-over-year changes compare the latest available value to the value closest to 12 months prior, using identical methodology on both sides.

Last refreshed: 19 Sept 2026, 10:13 UTC — auto-refreshes daily at 06:00 UTC