Signal Scoreboard

Every variable we track, split by whether its current reading is a positive or warning signal for the economy. This is the breakdown behind the headline on the dashboard.

The real world is nuanced but — the actual data looks better than the survey data. 28 of the 41 variables show a positive signal in the real-world data.

Positive Signals(28)

Variables currently reading as healthy or improving.

FRED·weekly·real

Commercial Bank Loans (H.8)

Credit & Lending

7.9%

+2.8pp vs year ago

growing 7.9% YoY (was 5.1%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

Consumer Credit Outstanding

Credit & Lending

2.7%

+2.6pp vs year ago

growing 2.7% YoY (was 0.1%, accelerating)

FRED·quarterly·real

Credit Card Delinquency Rate

Credit & Lending

2.9%

-0.2pp YoY

at 2.9% (down 0.2pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·reported

SLOOS Lending Standards

Credit & Lending

1.7%

-4.8pp YoY

at 1.7% (down 4.8pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·reported

Federal Government Receipts

Government Debt & Fiscal

$6056B

+7.0% YoY

at $6056B (up +7.0% YoY)

FRED·monthly·real

Electric Power Production

High-Frequency Activity

9.3%

+8.1pp vs year ago

growing 9.3% YoY (was 1.2%, accelerating)

OPENTABLE·daily·real

OpenTable Seated Diners

High-Frequency Activity

3.3%

-8.1pp vs year ago

growing 3.3% YoY (was 11.4%, decelerating)

FRED·weekly·real

Rail Freight Carloads

High-Frequency Activity

990805.0

+2.3% YoY

at 990805.0 (up +2.3% YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

FHFA House Price Index

Housing

3.0%

-0.8pp vs year ago

growing 3.0% YoY (was 3.8%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Housing

2.1%

+0.6pp vs year ago

growing 2.1% YoY (was 1.5%, accelerating)

ZILLOW-ZHVI·monthly·real

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)

Housing

1.2%

+1.1pp vs year ago

growing 1.2% YoY (was 0.1%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

CPI Rent of Primary Residence

Inflation

2.8%

-0.6pp vs year ago

growing 2.8% YoY (was 3.4%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

growing 3.2% YoY (was 3.6%, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

CPI Used Cars & Trucks

Inflation

-1.5%

-6.6pp vs year ago

contracting -1.5% YoY (was 5.1%, a deterioration from growth)

FRED·monthly·real

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealer Sales

Inflation

0.90M

-2.9pp vs year ago

growing 0.90M YoY (was 3.80M, decelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

ADP Employment Change

Labour Market

86K

+66K vs year ago

adding 86K (was 20K a year ago)

FRED·weekly·real

Continued Claims as % of Workforce

Continued Unemployment Claims

Labour Market

1701K

-12.9% YoY

at 1701K (down 12.9% YoY)

FRED·weekly·real

Initial Unemployment Claims

Labour Market

194K

-12.2% YoY

at 194K (down 12.2% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

Non-Farm Payrolls (BLS)

Labour Market

29K

-47K vs year ago

adding 29K (was 76K a year ago)

FRED·monthly·reported

Unemployment Rate (BLS)

Labour Market

4.2%

-0.2pp YoY

at 4.2% (down 0.2pp YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

BLS Manufacturing Employment

Manufacturing

+12K vs year ago

adding 9K (was -3K a year ago)

FRED·monthly·real

Capacity Utilization Rate

Manufacturing

76.9%

+0.8pp YoY

at 76.9% (up +0.8pp YoY)

growing 1.9% YoY (was -5.4%, a reversal from contraction)

FRED·monthly·real

Industrial Production Index

Manufacturing

2.2%

+0.3pp vs year ago

growing 2.2% YoY (was 1.9%, accelerating)

growing 6.3% YoY (was 3.7%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·real

Food Services & Drinking Places

Consumer Spending

7.0%

+1.9pp vs year ago

growing 7.0% YoY (was 5.1%, accelerating)

FRED·daily·real

Indeed Software Developer Job Postings

AI & Tech Employment

80.8

+23.8% YoY

at 80.8 (up +23.8% YoY)

Warning Signs(13)

Variables currently reading as unhealthy or deteriorating.

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Debt as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

121.2%

+3.0pp YoY

at 121.2% (up +3.0pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Deficit as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

-5.8%

+0.5pp YoY

at -5.8% (up +0.5pp YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Government Expenditures

Government Debt & Fiscal

$7907B

+4.6% YoY

at $7907B (up +4.6% YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Federal Interest Payments

Government Debt & Fiscal

$1329B

+7.3% YoY

at $1329B (up +7.3% YoY)

FRED·quarterly·real

Net Interest as % of GDP

Government Debt & Fiscal

3.9%

+0.1pp YoY

at 3.9% (up +0.1pp YoY)

TSA·daily·real

TSA Checkpoint Throughput

High-Frequency Activity

1.97M

-15.8% YoY

at 1.97M (down 15.8% YoY)

FRED·weekly·real

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

Housing

7.2%

+1.1pp YoY

at 7.2% (up +1.1pp YoY)

at 1398K (down 3.2% YoY)

at 1221K (down 7.4% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

growing 3.7% YoY (was 3.0%, accelerating)

ZILLOW-ZORI·monthly·real

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI)

Inflation

2.7%

+0.7pp vs year ago

growing 2.7% YoY (was 2.0%, accelerating)

FRED·monthly·reported

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Spending

48.1

-12.7% YoY

at 48.1 (down 12.7% YoY)

FRED·monthly·reported

BLS Tech Sector Employment

AI & Tech Employment

-10K

-9K vs year ago

losing 10K (was -1K a year ago)

How we score signals

Each variable is classified good or bad by the same rule used everywhere on the site. For rate series (already a % change, e.g. CPI YoY), we check both the level and the direction: an inflation-type metric is good if it’s already at or below 2% or if it’s decelerating; a growth-type metric is good if it’s positive or accelerating. For diff series (e.g. payrolls added/lost), positive = good when {upIsGood} is true. For level series, we use the YoY direction. Variables without enough history to compute a year-ago comparison are excluded from the count.

Methodology

Reported (Left column) = official surveys, models, and lagged indices. Subject to revision and sampling error. Sources: BLS (CES/CPS surveys), Conference Board, University of Michigan, S&P CoreLogic.

Real (Right column) = actual counted transactions, filings, and real-time measurements. No estimation. Sources: ADP payroll data, Zillow listings, TSA checkpoint counts, AAR carloads, FRED transactional series.

Pairing rule: Only metrics measuring the same variable in the same units are paired side-by-side. Metrics without a true survey counterpart are shown in the “Pure Actuals” section without comparison banners.

YoY calculation: All year-over-year changes compare the latest available value to the value closest to 12 months prior, using identical methodology on both sides.

Last refreshed: 4 Nov 2026, 13:42 UTC — auto-refreshes daily at 06:00 UTC